Akash SinghIsrael, Hezbollah, and Iran
The Current Situation
The risk of an all-out war involving Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran is escalating rapidly. Recent analysis from CSIS highlights a significant increase in violence. In the last week of September, incidents related to the Israel-Hezbollah conflict surged by 4.5 times compared to the previous average from October 7, 2023, to August 31, 2024.
Moreover, the geographic scope of attacks has expanded. Israeli and Hezbollah strikes are now averaging 27–28 km from the Blue Line, a substantial increase from the previous 3–4 km range. This widening conflict may soon affect larger areas in Lebanon, Israel, and potentially Iran, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
Understanding the Escalation
Israel and Hezbollah are locked in a fierce escalation known as Operation Northern Arrows. In mid-September 2024, Israeli intelligence executed a plan to disrupt Hezbollah’s communications, destroying thousands of their beepers and walkie-talkies. This operation reportedly killed dozens of Hezbollah members and injured thousands more.
On September 27, 2024, an Israeli airstrike targeted and killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah at the group’s headquarters in Beirut. This attack was part of a broader campaign against Hezbollah’s leadership, which has seen the elimination of numerous senior figures in September 2024.
Just days before the airstrike, Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi, Chief of the General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), informed troops on the northern border about preparations for ground maneuvers. The IDF also mobilised two reserve brigades for operational missions in the north. Additionally, Israeli commandos have conducted cross-border operations to gather intelligence and ready themselves for a potential invasion.
The Role of Iran
In response to Israeli actions, Iran has fired waves of ballistic missiles and other advanced weapons at Israel. This development raises crucial questions about the future of this conflict:
- What objectives do Israel and Hezbollah pursue?
- How has violence evolved in recent months?
- What are potential scenarios for further escalation?
- What options do the United States and other nations have to mitigate or prevent this escalation?
Analysis of Recent Data
To answer these questions, this analysis utilises both quantitative and qualitative data. It compiles information on Israeli and Hezbollah strikes along the Israel-Lebanon-Syria border, focusing on Hezbollah’s attacks within the demilitarised zone between the Blue Line and the Litani River.
Recent data indicates an increase in the scope and scale of military operations by both sides. While most strikes have occurred along a narrow stretch of the Israel-Lebanon border, the nature of this limited conflict is changing. Israel has intensified its attacks, expanding the depth of its targeting. Hezbollah has also increased its strikes but to a much lesser extent. Iran has directly engaged in the conflict by launching ballistic missiles at Israel.
Future Scenarios
Despite the escalating tensions, an all-out war is not inevitable. Israeli military actions may compel Hezbollah to accept a ceasefire or reduce its forces along the border. Successful negotiations could create a buffer zone that prevents further conflict. However, if talks fail, the potential for war increases significantly.
This escalation could lead to severe casualties for both Hezbollah and Israeli forces, jeopardising Israeli civilians nationwide. It could also result in significant civilian casualties in Lebanon and potentially draw in Iran, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and other countries into the conflict.
In nut shell, this analysis is divided into four sections to further explore the implications of escalation. The first section discusses likely objectives of Israel and Hezbollah. The second examines the evolution of violence, while the third explores potential scenarios for further escalation. Finally, the fourth section considers U.S. policy options to address this complex situation.
Strategic Objectives of Hezbollah and Iran
Formation and Support
Shortly after the 1979 Iranian Revolution, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) played a crucial role in establishing Lebanese Hezbollah. The IRGC provided financial support, equipment, training, and strategic guidance to this emerging Shia organisation. In total, around 1,500 IRGC advisers were sent to the Bekaa Valley in Lebanon. Their mission was to build and operate training camps for Hezbollah fighters, preparing them for conflict with Israel.
Historical Context
Hezbollah significantly influenced Israel’s military strategies. The group contributed to Israel’s decision to withdraw to a buffer zone along the Lebanese border in 1985 and its complete withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000. Since its inception, Hezbollah has positioned itself against Israel, with primary objectives being the expulsion of Israeli forces from Lebanon and ultimately the destruction of Israel.
Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, Israel and Hezbollah engaged in regular attacks against each other, despite the presence of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) along the Israel-Lebanon border, known as the Blue Line.
Post-2000 Dynamics
After Israel’s withdrawal in 2000, Hezbollah continued to target Israeli interests. This limited conflict escalated into an all-out war in 2006, following a Hezbollah cross-border kidnapping operation. The war resulted in over 100 Israeli deaths and around 500 Hezbollah fighters killed, leaving Lebanon in ruins. The conflict concluded with United Nations Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1701, which established a demilitarised zone between the Blue Line and the Litani River, prohibiting unauthorized weapons and fighters south of the Litani River.
Uneasy Status Quo
Following the 2006 war, an uneasy status quo emerged. Israel sporadically attacked Hezbollah fighters while Iranian arms shipments continued to flow to Hezbollah and other groups in Syria. The border region experienced intermittent rocket and drone attacks. However, this period marked the calmest the border had been in decades.
A long-standing dispute also revolved around the village of Ghajar, located just west of Shebaa Farms. This village is bisected by the Israel-Lebanon border, with residents holding both Lebanese and Israeli citizenship. In 2006, Israeli forces reoccupied Ghajar, maintaining control over the entire village.
Recent Changes
In the past year, various factors have shifted the dynamics between Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran:
Increased Insecurity: The October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks on Israel heightened Israeli insecurity and psychological distress. Israel’s risk tolerance shifted dramatically. If Hamas could execute a surprise operation resulting in over 1,100 Israeli deaths, the fear of a well-organised Hezbollah grew.
Displacement Crisis: The aftermath of the October 7 attacks and subsequent clashes displaced over 150,000 people on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border. This included more than 62,000 civilians from northern Israel and over 92,000 from southern Lebanon. The ongoing displacement pressures Israeli leaders to address the Hezbollah threat so residents can return home.
Hezbollah’s Military Growth: Hezbollah has significantly enhanced its military capabilities, reportedly stockpiling over 150,000 standoff weapons in Lebanon and Syria. The presence of Iranian forces and proxies across Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and other regions suggests that the threat from the north may worsen over time.
Understanding the strategic objectives of Hezbollah and Iran is crucial for assessing the evolving dynamics in the region. As tensions continue to escalate, the implications for Israel and its neighbours become increasingly significant.
Israeli Objectives in the Hezbollah Conflict
Curbing the Hezbollah Threat
Israeli leaders have several key objectives in the ongoing conflict with Hezbollah. The primary goal is to reduce the Hezbollah threat to Israel by significantly degrading its military capabilities. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant emphasised the need to “destroy Hezbollah’s capabilities that have been built up over 20 years.” This includes disarming entire units of the Radwan force, leaving Hassan Nasrallah isolated at the helm of Hezbollah. Israel is transitioning from a traditional deterrence strategy to one aimed at weakening Hezbollah so severely that it cannot effectively respond.
Violations of UNSCR 1701
Hezbollah has consistently targeted Israeli military and civilian locations with anti-tank guided munitions (ATGMs), rockets, drones, and missiles. These attacks originate from south of the Litani River and other areas in Lebanon. Such actions blatantly violate UNSCR 1701. Furthermore, Hezbollah’s elite Radwan forces have been deployed along the border. With Iranian assistance, Hezbollah reportedly has around 200,000 standoff weapons, including unguided rockets and guided ballistic missiles like the Fateh-110/M-600 and Qadr-1.
Resettling Displaced Populations
Another crucial objective for Israel is the resettlement of its internally displaced population back to their homes in northern Israel. Achieving this goal necessitates establishing a secure environment, which currently does not exist. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that returning civilians to their homes requires a “fundamental change in the security situation in the north.” This perspective is driving Israel’s recent military escalation. Defense Minister Gallant echoed this sentiment, stating, “We will continue with additional blows until we achieve our goal—the return of the residents of the north to their homes. We are willing to take any action necessary.”
Escalating Violence
The violence has intensified significantly, especially in late September. Following the attacks on October 7, Israel conducted approximately 160 attacks per week for 11 months. However, in the week of September 15, Israel struck Lebanon over 300 times, and more than 700 times in the week of September 22.
Before Operation Northern Arrows began in September, indications suggested a new phase in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. Weekly violent incidents had fluctuated between 150 and 250 between October 7, 2023, and August 18, 2024. However, late August saw incidents surpass 280 per week, primarily driven by Israeli attacks. Additionally, Israeli warplanes began frequent overflights over Lebanon, a notable change from prior summer months when these incidents were rare. The increase in overflights, often breaking the sound barrier, now serves as an implicit threat.
Remote Visualization of the Conflict
Throughout the summer, most violence occurred near the Blue Line. Since October, Hezbollah and Israel have engaged in daily exchanges of artillery, ATGMs, and drone strikes across the border. Prior to Operation Northern Arrows, this conflict had already displaced around 60,000 Israelis and 110,000 Lebanese. The situation worsened dramatically after the operation commenced, with Lebanese authorities reporting over 90,000 people displaced and around 600 fatalities between September 24 and September 26.
Expanding Violence
The violence in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict has not been confined to southern Lebanon or northern Israel. It has increasingly penetrated deeper into both countries. Since early 2024, Israel has conducted long-range strikes into Lebanon, with both the frequency and depth of these strikes rising over time. Between October 7, 2023, and August 31, 2024, the average Israeli strike occurred about 4 km into Lebanon. However, during the first three weeks of September, this average depth increased to approximately 6 km, reaching an average of 27 km during the week of September 22.
Targeting Hezbollah
High-profile deep strikes have included assassinations of Hezbollah leaders in Beirut. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have also targeted Hezbollah’s logistics and air defense infrastructures. The IDF’s strategy appears focused on degrading Hezbollah’s ability to supply and protect its forces throughout Lebanon. This approach goes beyond just symbolically or politically important targets.
Hezbollah’s Mixed Response
Despite threats from Hezbollah and Iranian leaders to escalate their actions in response to Israeli strikes, their success has been mixed. As shown in recent data, Hezbollah has launched far fewer deep attacks into Israel than Israel has into Lebanon. This may be partly due to the effectiveness of Israeli air defenses, such as Iron Dome and David’s Sling. For over a decade, Hezbollah has possessed standoff weapons capable of striking all of Israel but has primarily retaliated with short-range rockets or ATGMs instead.
Escalating Attack Depth
While the number of Hezbollah attacks remains low, the depth of these strikes has increased. Between October 7, 2023, and August 18, 2024, the average Hezbollah strike reached about 3 km into Israel. By the week of September 22, this depth rose to 28 km. The reduction in attacks is likely due to the pressure from Israel’s actions against Hezbollah’s leadership and military capabilities.
Long-Range Attacks
Hezbollah recently intensified its long-range attacks, including a missile strike on September 25 that targeted the Mossad headquarters near Tel Aviv. Although Israeli air defense intercepted the attack, it indicated Hezbollah’s willingness to target major Israeli cities. However, this has not yet evolved into a sustained campaign of long-range strikes, possibly due to the pressure from Israel’s recent military successes.
Iranian Involvement
The conflict escalated further on October 1, when Iran launched about 180 ballistic missiles at Israel. This marked only the second direct attack on Israel from Iranian territory. Israel’s response to this attack remains uncertain but could involve significant military actions against Iranian infrastructure. The region is now on the brink of all-out war, with increased direct confrontations between Israel and Iran likely pushing the situation to the edge.
Scenarios for Escalation
Given the ongoing violence, three potential scenarios for further escalation emerge: an Israeli ground invasion, a coercive air war, and a major escalation by Hezbollah.
Ground Invasion
Israel could undertake a significant ground incursion into southern Lebanon. The aim would be to push Hezbollah forces away from the Israel-Lebanon border, ideally beyond the Litani River. Such an operation would resemble the buffer zone Israel maintained from 1985 to 2000. This approach would require a substantial number of Israeli ground forces, similar to the 30,000 troops deployed in 2006.
If successful, a ground invasion would reduce the risk of Hezbollah launching attacks from Lebanon. Hezbollah fighters would have to traverse a buffer zone, making them easier to detect. This would enhance safety for Israelis returning to their homes in northern Israel.
Potential Risks
However, the costs of such an operation could be significant. Nearly a year of conflict in Gaza has strained the Israeli military, which relies on reserves. Additionally, the skill of Hezbollah fighters and their fortified positions could lead to high Israeli casualties. A ground invasion might also provoke a large-scale response from Hezbollah, including rocket and missile attacks across Israel.
The Impact of Israel-Hezbollah Conflict on Lebanon
Severe Damage to Lebanon
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah poses severe threats to Lebanon. Israeli forces are targeting Hezbollah infrastructure and fighters across the country. If the Gaza campaign serves as a guide, Israel is likely to cause significant damage to civilian infrastructure. This escalation may lead to the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Lebanese citizens.
Long-Term Territorial Concerns
Israel faces challenges regarding the long-term status of the territory. Before 2000, Hezbollah frequently attacked Israeli forces and their Lebanese allies in a buffer zone, inflicting steady casualties. Israel’s withdrawal in 2000 has made it difficult to find local allies to maintain security. Consequently, this situation increases the risk of casualties and the number of troops needed to establish a buffer zone. Furthermore, Iran is expected to support Hezbollah, enabling the group to recover from Israeli attacks.
Hezbollah’s Defensive Narrative
The occupation of Lebanese territory by Israel could bolster Hezbollah’s support. The group can portray its actions as defensive, claiming to restore Lebanon’s sovereignty. This narrative may attract increased public backing, complicating Israel’s military strategy.
Potential Military Strategies
Israel may resort to a ground invasion supported by an aggressive air campaign. The goal would be to significantly weaken Hezbollah’s capabilities, destroy infrastructure, and threaten further escalation if Hezbollah continues its attacks. Economist and military strategist Thomas Schelling notes, “It is the threat of damage, or of more damage to come, that can make someone yield or comply.”
Coercive Air War Strategy
Instead of a full-scale ground invasion, Israel could launch a sustained air campaign against Hezbollah and Iranian-backed groups. This strategy would involve piloted aircraft and drones targeting Hezbollah’s military assets, including missile sites and command centers. Such an operation would reduce the risks to Israeli personnel and avoid many of the costs associated with a ground invasion. However, this campaign would need to be sustained over several days, akin to the U.S. Operation Allied Force in Kosovo, which lasted 78 days.
Impacts on Hezbollah
If successful, this air campaign could disrupt Hezbollah’s leadership and military operations. As a result, Hezbollah may struggle to maintain its operational strength, reducing the number of rockets and missiles directed at Israel. However, constant attacks might also lead Hezbollah to seek a ceasefire, fearing public backlash from Lebanese citizens due to the destruction.
Risks of Resistance
Hezbollah has shown resilience in the past, often willing to endure significant losses. The group may resist pressure from Israel, fearing public embarrassment if they appear to surrender. They may also perceive an imminent threat to their weapons systems, believing that delaying action could lead to greater losses. Without ground troops, Israel may find it challenging to root out Hezbollah fighters who can hide among civilians.
Civilian Suffering
Lebanese civilians are likely to suffer significantly due to Israeli military operations. Many Hezbollah facilities are reportedly located near civilian areas, which raises concerns about collateral damage. While Israel claims to target military sites, past conflicts have shown that high-profile attacks sometimes lead to civilian casualties. Despite international condemnation, Israel’s actions in Gaza suggest that such concerns may not heavily influence their decision-making.
Possible Hezbollah Escalation
Hezbollah and Iran may opt for a dramatic escalation in response to Israeli actions. Group leaders might feel pressured to respond to maintain credibility. An all-out war could see massive rocket, missile, and drone assaults on Israel, along with limited ground operations. However, executing a ground operation would be challenging due to Israel’s heightened military readiness and intelligence capabilities.
The Hezbollah Threat to Israel
Hezbollah’s Arsenal
One of the most significant dangers for Israel is Hezbollah’s arsenal of rockets, missiles, and drones. While Israeli air strikes have degraded some of this capability, Hezbollah still retains a large stockpile. This includes unguided missiles and a smaller number of guided missiles that can reach all parts of Israel. Recent Israeli attacks may have caused chaos in Hezbollah’s command-and-control systems. However, if Hezbollah launches a large-scale attack, it could potentially overwhelm Israeli air defenses.
Political and Military Goals
Hezbollah’s objectives extend beyond military goals; they are also deeply political. By conducting credible operations against Israel, Hezbollah seeks to repair its reputation damaged by Israeli intelligence successes. Furthermore, Hezbollah aims to inflict consistent pressure on Israelis, reminiscent of its tactics during the 2006 war, which created a perception of an unwinnable conflict.
Risks for Hezbollah
The risks for Hezbollah are substantial. The group could lose many fighters in ground attacks, resulting in an uncoordinated response that may inflict limited damage on Israel. This scenario could lead to further humiliation for Hezbollah. Additionally, many Lebanese citizens would likely hold both Hezbollah and Israel responsible for the resulting destruction.
Iran’s Limited Support
Hezbollah may rely on support from Iran, but Iran’s response to Israeli attacks has been minimal. Its weak conventional military and distance from the conflict zone limit its effectiveness. Nonetheless, Iran is expected to replenish Hezbollah’s losses and provide financial support, similar to its assistance in 2006. Iran has also indicated its willingness to attack Israel directly in response to threats against Hezbollah.
Diplomatic Efforts for Peace
The United States has been actively pursuing diplomacy to establish a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah since the crisis began. Although these efforts have not yet succeeded, the U.S. did help prevent Israel from launching a preemptive strike following the October attack. U.S. diplomacy may also have deterred Iran from escalating its involvement and influenced Hezbollah’s decision-making to avoid all-out war.
Proposed Solutions
Amos Hochstein is a key figure in U.S. diplomacy regarding the Lebanon crisis. He collaborates with French and German officials to propose relocating Hezbollah forces and ending Israeli overflights of Lebanon, which violate UNSCR 1701. Hochstein advocates for additional observers to monitor Hezbollah activities more effectively. However, Hezbollah insists it will continue its attacks as long as Hamas is engaged in conflict.
Military Support for Israel
Despite pushing for diplomatic solutions, the United States has continued to support Israel militarily. This includes providing equipment, ammunition, and intelligence. Given the risk of an all-out war, U.S. officials should intensify efforts to secure a ceasefire in Lebanon, even if it cannot be achieved in Gaza. Hezbollah might be open to a ceasefire if it can do so while saving face, which may require a significant attack on Israel.
Alternative Proposals
Experts, like Middle East analyst Robert Satloff, suggest the United States could advocate for an informal deal where both sides significantly reduce cross-border fire. This would allow civilians to return home while Hezbollah removes major military systems from the Israeli border area. In return, Israel could permit Hezbollah’s forces to return, albeit not in uniform or large formations.
Challenges Ahead Achieving a lasting ceasefire remains a significant challenge. The October 7 Hamas attack marked a turning point for Israel, heightening national insecurity. Negotiators may find it difficult to establish a comprehensive peace, focusing instead on managing violence and preventing a broader war that could devastate Lebanon and potentially spread to Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and beyond.
Conclusion
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah highlights the complexities of military strategies and humanitarian impacts. Understanding Israel’s objectives is essential for grasping the evolving dynamics of this tense situation.
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah continues to evolve, with the potential for further escalation always present. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for grasping the complexities of the situation.
The Israel-Hezbollah conflict continues to pose severe risks to Lebanon and its civilians. As military strategies evolve, both sides face challenges that could lead to further escalation or potential ceasefires.
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